OMO fully hedges 120 billion yuan due

China Securities Network (intern reporter Li Bingjia) On the morning of August 2, the central bank launched a 120 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, including 90 billion yuan 7 days and 30 billion yuan 14 days, today there are 120 billion yuan back The purchase expires, and this move achieves an equal amount of hedging. It is also the third day of the central bank’s “zero return zero return”. Analysts pointed out that the situation of maintaining “not tight or loose” funds in August has become more obvious. However, due to the large scale of funds due, it is still necessary to continue to observe changes in the attitude of the central bank. Judging from the recent operations and attitudes of the central bank, the probability of a short-term central bank continuing to maintain a "neutral" attitude is too large.

Today's central bank OMO's equal hedging still maintains a "neutral" tone, indicating that the central bank has no intention of turning to easing in the near future. The focus at this stage is still the stability of market expectations and the stability of short-term liquidity. As the end of August is about to enter the peak season of construction, inflation expectations are also heating up driven by rising commodity prices. Judging from the recent changes in the demand for the real economy and the trend of relevant investment indicators, the stable trend of the macro economy has provided a solid foundation for maintaining a stable capital. The exchange rate factor may also have a positive boost to liquidity due to the rise in foreign exchange holdings. Therefore, overall, short-term capital fabrics will continue to remain stable.

Since the OMO's equal hedging is the “zero return to zero” operation of the central bank for the third consecutive day since this week, although the central bank still maintains a stable and neutral attitude towards monetary policy, monetary policy will not continue from the operational level and actual experience. The signs of tightening are also obvious. At the same time, the term curve has gradually stabilized.

CITIC Securities 600030, clinics shares said that since the 2017 financial deleveraging as regulators continue to promote policy, M2 year on year growth since the beginning of continuous decline in recent years repeatedly record low, the internal leverage financial system has emerged significantly reduced. Since the second half of the year, regulators have continued to release stable leverage signals, and the regulatory thinking has shifted from de-leveraging to stable leverage, meaning that the growth rate of M2, which represents the internal leverage of the financial system, has bottomed out, and will maintain a steady or slow recovery in the future. The central bank is required to continue to provide liquidity to maintain a moderate level of funding. It is expected that stable neutrality will remain the direction of monetary policy in the next five months. The agency also pointed out that under the condition that the money multiplier and M2 year-on-year growth rate remained stable, the liquidity gap between August and December was obtained by measuring the changes in the base currency balance and the liquidity gap by splitting and analyzing the central bank's balance sheet. 1 trillion yuan, which requires the central bank to conduct an average of about 200 billion yuan in open market monthly, in order to maintain a stable and neutral state of market liquidity during the year. Therefore, the market outlook also needs to continue to observe the operation and attitude of the central bank.

At present, although most institutions have indicated that there is a high probability of late liquidity. However, it is worth mentioning that there are still pressures for maturity for the rest of the week, and the “disturbance” that may arise in terms of liquidity remains to be further observed.