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On the one hand, the domestic market to do more emotional rekindling, on the other hand throwing storage time delay, Zheng cotton September contract again on March 17 pull up. However, fundamentals have not improved, the rebound will not last long. Global Inventories High The USDA report shows that global ending stocks for 2015/2016 are forecast to drop to 103.34 million bales from February's 1.0408 bales. The main reason for the drop in global cotton inventories is the decrease in output. The main reason for the decrease in output is the decrease in the output of Indian cotton in the major producing countries. The output of Indian cotton is estimated at 5,840,000 tons, down from the estimate of 6,060,000 tons last month. However, the USDA is not expected to have a significant reduction in global inventories and it will take time to go there. U.S. acreage will increase At the end of December 2015, the United States suffered the worst snowstorm in 30 years, alleviating farmland drought conditions and boosting cotton yield. Data released by the USDA at the Agricultural Outlook Forum show that U.S. cotton production in 2016/2017 is projected to increase from 769 bales / acre to 812 bales per acre. Thanks to higher yields, the United States will see an increase in cotton acreage in 2016/2017. According to the statistics of the Cotton Association of the United States, the area of ​​intent for planting cotton in 2016/2017 is 55.292 million mu, an increase of 6.2% over the same period of last year. In addition, due to the weak demand in the Chinese market, the contract volume of the United States cotton dropped significantly. As of February 18, 2015/2016 US cotton signed a total of 1,536,000 tons, a decrease of 659,000 tons, a decrease of 30%, to complete USDA export forecast of 73%, down from 89% over the same period the previous year; the United States; The total shipment of cotton was 826,000 tons, a decrease of 161,000 tons year-on-year. Increased cotton planting intentions will increase cotton production, which in turn will weaken ICE cotton, but also to a certain extent, affect the internal disk, while the slowdown in the signing rate also reflects the market's weak demand concerns. Downstream domestic consumption downturn At present, China still has 14,156,000 tons of ending stocks, accounting for about 60% of global inventory. High cotton stocks hit the enthusiasm of cotton growers, China's cotton acreage will continue to decline. The latest statistics from the National Cotton Market Monitoring System show that in the 2016/2017 fiscal year, the planned area of ​​cotton intended for cotton production was only 42.57 million mu, down 14.414 million mu year-on-year. Sowing area decreased directly lead to reduced cotton production. Cotton production is expected to be strong, downstream consumption has not improved, the textile business operating conditions failed to improve. Statistics of China's General Administration of Customs show that in February, China's textile exports amounted to 15.658 billion U.S. dollars, down 27.79% on a year-on-year basis. Among them, the textile exports amounted to 6.083 billion US dollars, down 27.56%. Heavy throwing pressure on the storage Although the State Reserve cotton round the time postponed to mid to late in April, but throwing storage is still an important factor in the cotton market in recent stages. According to customs statistics, China imported 56,200 tons of cotton in February 2016, down by 102,800 tons or 64.65% from the same period of last year. From September 2015 to February 2016, China imported a total of 51,750 tons of cotton, a decrease of 364,200 tons year on year, Mainly due to purchase subject waiting for reserve cotton auction. For throwing storage, a large cotton business that, although the August-August State Reserve cotton dominates cotton prices, but the key depends on the level of cotton rotation, quality and capital flow of textile enterprises. In 2015, the State Reserve's cotton reserve project produced nearly 1 million tons of cotton and eventually sold only 60,000 tons. Low volume, is due to the State Reserve cotton low quality and high starting price. This lint is stored for another year, the quality is not optimistic. In general, the huge inventory control, cotton prices run weakly, but from the cost and state policies to protect farmers should not be too bearish on cotton, throwing storage before implementation, it is recommended to wait and see, aggressive investors can rebound short .