Just like the mystery of the "three-body" in celestial mechanics, the three coordinates of the commodity market - gold, dollar and black gold - the mystery of "three golds" has never been accurately solved. The Fed’s decision makers, who are not eager to raise interest rates, have hurt the dollar’s ​​long-term bullishness, which has caused the price of gold denominated in dollars to rise rapidly. During the most recent statistical period, the US dollar short position monitored by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) soared to more than three years high. The data shows that the US dollar index was 92.117 points when it was published on May 3, and the cumulative decline since the beginning of this year was nearly 7%, which was the worst performance in the same period in the past five years. The price of gold rose. On May 3, the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold futures contract closed at 271.5 yuan per gram, up nearly 20% this year. According to industry insiders, for the gold market, it has been in a mid-level rebound since December 2015. The current rebound in driving gold continues, but it is not enough to judge the reversal. "retirement" dollar As soon as the Fed entered the interest rate hike cycle, the US dollar index turned downwards and the bulls began a major retreat. Last week (as of the week of April 29), the Fed’s interest rate meeting was neutral, and its concerns about global economic and financial market volatility were reduced, but concerns about the US’s own poor data have risen. Look, the industry estimates that the possibility of a Fed rate hike in the near future is still small. In this context, the rapid decline of the US dollar index is on the one hand, the Fed's overall loose remarks have delayed the interest rate hike expectations, and on the other hand, speculative funds based on hedge funds are not optimistic about the dollar market. According to data released by the CFTC on Friday, the net short position of the US dollar rose to its highest level since February 2013, as the market expects the Fed not to rush to raise interest rates during the year. Last week, the net position of the dollar was converted to headroom for the first time in nearly a year. The data also showed that gold speculative net long position increased by 4020 hands to 220,857 lots, maintaining a net increase for the sixth consecutive week, and hitting a new high since August 2011. Since the beginning of this year, the speculative net long position of gold has soared from 26,560 hands to 220,857 hands, an astonishing 733%. Green Futures R&D Director Li Yongmin said that whether the Fed raises interest rates should take into account factors such as the core inflation rate, unemployment rate, the recovery of the US real economy, and monetary policies of other major countries. At present, although the unemployment rate in the United States has declined, the core inflation rate in the United States is not high, and the country has not yet formed a new economic growth point. In general, the real economy is still relatively fragile, and these factors have slowed the pace of the Fed’s rate hike. Li Yongmin said that despite the recent lack of bright spots in the US economy, the European economy has gradually stepped out of the trough; despite the slowdown in China's GDP growth, the quality of economic development has improved and the economic structure has improved. This means that China's economic development is full of stamina, which is also constraining the US dollar index. One of the factors of rising. Cheng Xiaoyong, assistant director of Baocheng Futures Finance Research Institute, said that from the recent US economic data and the trend of the US dollar, the number and intensity of the Fed’s interest rate hike this year may be relatively weaker than expected in January, but it does not mean that the Fed has given up the rate hike. Tightening policy. Industry insiders said that since the end of last year's Fed rate hike cycle, it has now encountered very strong pressure, the Fed has given up two consecutive interest rate hikes, indicating that the expectations of the entire US economy are not optimistic, the most important is economic growth. And peripheral currency market issues. The Fed’s monetary policy is now more inclined to ensure economic growth and maintain the dollar’s ​​weakness. If the US dollar continues to strengthen due to interest rate hike expectations, the US export market may face greater pressure, which is unfavorable to the US economy when exports account for the continued rise in US GDP. Therefore, the Fed is actually deliberately driving down the exchange rate. Cheng Xiaoyong pointed out that the recent rapid decline of the US dollar index may have three dominant and one hidden reasons: First, the US economic indicators continued to weaken, including the core inflation rebound was less than expected, the first quarter GDP growth rate was less than expected; Second, the Japanese accident Without expanding the scale of easing, under the asymmetric currency risk, Europe and Japan have limited room for easing compared to the United States; third, the economic indicators released by Europe are stable relative to the United States, and the economic recovery is strong and weak, which means that the US dollar It may weaken against the euro. "radical" gold In the first half of this year, the commodity market rose wildly, and gold was one of the “radicalsâ€, even putting the US dollar index at its feet. "Gold has both commodity attributes and financial attributes. In the near term, financial attributes are obviously stronger than commodity attributes. The fall of the US dollar index has a greater supporting effect on the rise of gold prices." Li Yongmin said. For gold, it has been in a mid-level rebound since December last year, and some even believe that it has reversed. There are several reasons why the rebound in gold may continue. Cheng Xiaoyong said that the Fed’s interest rate hike is expected to weaken, the US dollar index continues to fall, and the dollar-denominated gold rises. Second, some economies, including China, have risen more than expected. In the case of rising inflation, gold as a hedge against inflation The effective assets are favored; the third is the asset rotation effect. After a round of stock market, bond market and property market rise, only gold is at a low value, causing some investment institutions to allocate gold. It is generally believed that the price of gold depends on the investment demand, because the logic of gold and general commodity prices is different. The physical investment is basically not lost due to the good recovery of gold, so historical data shows that the increase in physical investment and the rise in gold prices There is no stable correlation. Xiao Lei, chief researcher of the gold wallet, said that due to the weak global consumer market, the first demand for gold, jewelry consumption, was not satisfactory in the first quarter of this year. The current global demand for gold fell by 24%, but gold was a commodity with strong financial attributes. The increase in investment demand drove the overall market price increase, and the positions of gold professional investment funds generally increased in the first quarter, an increase of more than 15%. The impact of the decline in demand for gold jewelry was compensated by investment demand, and the price of gold continued to rise. Currently, funds are actively entering the precious metals market. On May 2, SPDR significantly increased its positions by 20.80 tons to 824.94 tons, and SLV increased its positions by 56.21 tons to 10538.31 tons. As of April 26, the Chicago Futures Exchange (COMEX) gold non-commercial net longs increased by 4020 lots to 220857. Hand, a new high in four and a half years, COMEX silver non-commercial net longs increased by 7,345 hands to 78,773 hands, a record high. In terms of physical goods, the sales of American Eagle Gold coins have increased significantly from the previous two months, which is the second highest in the year. Xiao Lei believes that the current factors supporting the gold price have not changed too much. The risky stock market, foreign exchange and bond markets are facing the challenges of weak economic growth, negative interest rates and rising debt leverage. The safe-haven demand for gold still exists. In addition, the demand for gold jewellery in India and China will gradually recover after the second quarter, and there is certain fundamental support for the gold market. Rising oil prices may boost gold prices The rapid rise in gold prices is also related to crude oil, one of the leading commodities. According to industry insiders, crude oil is the leader of the global commodity sector. Although it has both commodity and financial properties, crude oil and gold have a strong correlation in the past when crude oil financial assets were relatively strong. However, with the fall in crude oil prices in the past two years, commodity attributes have gradually increased, financial attributes have declined, and the correlation between crude oil and gold has gradually decreased. The reason for the recent low price fluctuations in crude oil prices is mainly caused by overcapacity in the crude oil market and oversupply. However, Li Ning, deputy director of the Shanghai Interim Futures Research Institute, said that the current US crude oil production continued to shrink, the refinery overhaul, the significant decline in refined oil inventories, etc., may cause oil prices to remain strong, and rising oil prices will raise inflation expectations, thus giving gold To boost. Xiao Lei said that the price of crude oil was benefited from the lowering of the US dollar and the rise of gold and other markets. On the other hand, it was the speculative follow-up effect of the futures market brought about by the oversold rebound. The crude oil market is currently very different from the gold market. The supply and demand in the gold market are basically balanced, and the oversupply situation in the crude oil market continues to expand. In the medium and long term, the trend of crude oil and gold has a positive correlation of more than 80%. Higher oil prices will also drive the gold market. However, as the financial properties of the gold market increase, the correlation between crude oil and gold will continue to decrease. Xiao Lei further pointed out that if the dollar continues to weaken, the support for gold may be greater than the support for crude oil. Conversely, if the dollar strengthens, the pressure on gold may be greater than crude oil. In view of the current market trend, the weak dollar market will not end in a short time. Yangzhou Lansun Slipper Co.,Ltd , https://www.lansunhospitality.com